Viridian Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VRDN) - Research Report

Date: 10/30/2025

Author: Lorenzo Agostini, Ph.D

Disclosure & Disclaimer

This research note is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Assumptions, estimates, and simulations are based on an internal model and publicly available information believed to be reliable but not independently verified; numbers and views may change without notice.

1 Executive Summary

Real time VRDN stock price from TradingView.

1.1 Thesis

Viridian Therapeutics (ticker: VRDN) is advancing a Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) franchise centered on insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor (IGF-1R) monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) —veligrotug given intravenously (IV) preparing a Biologics License Application (BLA), and VRDN-003 given subcutaneously (SC) with both Phase 3 REVEAL-1 and REVEAL-2 trials fully enrolled and guided to topline in the first half of 2026 (1H-2026) [Company press release, September 15, 2025]. An open-label extension (OLE) exists to provide access for non-responders and collect longer-term outcomes (beyond 24-54 weeks), supporting the durability narrative [ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06179875]. Mechanistic and clinical class validation come from randomized trials of teprotumumab (anti–IGF-1R) showing improvements in proptosis, Clinical Activity Score (CAS), diplopia, and quality of life (QoL), aligned with thyroid-stimulating hormone receptor (TSHR)/IGF-1R crosstalk biology in orbital fibroblasts [New England Journal of Medicine, 2020; Frontiers in Immunology, 2023]. In parallel, Viridian is progressing neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) inhibition with VRDN-006 in a first-in-human Phase 1 healthy-volunteer study and VRDN-008 as an extended half-life FcRn inhibitor in preclinical development, broadening optionality beyond TED [Company press releases, November 12, 2024; August 6, 2025].

1.2 Valuation

A blended SOTP—70% explicit rNPV (10% WACC, 50% NOPAT; U.S./EU owned cash flows; Japan as TED royalties) plus 30% peak-sales multiples (TED 5× on owned risk-adjusted peak; FcRn 3×)—yields Base equity ≈ $2.01B or ~$20.01/sh (~100.3M FD as-converted outstanding shares).

Scenario medians (Monte Carlo Analysis): $9.22/sh (Conservative; 11% WACC, slower ramps, $300M overhead), $19.87/sh (Base), $27.56/sh (Aggressive; 9% WACC, faster ramps, $200M overhead); Disaster floor ~ $1.9/sh (cash less overhead). At $23.63 (Oct 31, 2025), the stock trades between Base and Aggressive—above Base p95 (~$21.28) yet below Aggressive p25 (~$26.78)—implying expectations for faster ramps and/or richer economics than Base but short of the Aggressive median.

Timeline illustration. * Planned, ** If approved.

 [Corporate presentation, October 2025; Company press releases, 2025].

1.3 Catalysts (12–18 months).

• Veligrotug (IV): BLA timing guided as “imminent,” European Union (EU) Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) targeted for 1H-2026, potential United States (US) launch in 2H-2026, and Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) granted in May 2025.

• VRDN-003 (SC): REVEAL-1 and REVEAL-2 fully enrolled (Phase 3) with topline data guided for 1H-2026 and a BLA submission targeted by year-end 2026 (YE-2026).

• FcRn portfolio: VRDN-006 Phase 1 readouts (immunoglobulin G (IgG) reduction, safety) from the ongoing healthy-volunteer program.

• VRDN-008: advancing preclinically with extended half-life design.

  
  

1.4 Balance Sheet & Financing Insights

Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments were US$563.4 million as of June 30, 2025, with runway into the 2H-2027. Viridian announced an up to US$300 million royalty financing with DRI Healthcare on October 20, 2025, including US$55 million upfront and up to US$115 million in near-term milestones tied to VRDN-003 topline and veligrotug U.S. approval. The company also maintains a Loan and Security Agreement with Hercules Capital, Inc. (Hercules, a specialty finance/venture‑lending firm), which as of June 30, 2025 provided up to US$150 million in capacity, subsequently upsized in October 2025 [Form 10‑Q, Q2 2025; Company press release, October 20, 2025]. Kissei Pharmaceutical further holds an exclusive license for veligrotug and VRDN-003 in Japan with a US$70 million upfront payment, up to US$315 million in milestones, and tiered royalties [Company press release, July 30, 2025]. VRDN issued 81.65 million common shares and could increase up to 100.32 million on an as-converted basis [Form 10-Q, Q2-2025].

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2 Scientific Overview—Diseases & Mechanism Primer

2.1 Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) Overview

Thyroid Eye Disease (TED), also called Graves’ orbitopathy, is an autoimmune orbital disorder characterized by inflammation, extra‑ocular muscle and adipose expansion, and glycosaminoglycan accumulation that manifest as proptosis, diplopia, pain, and — in severe cases — optic neuropathy [New England Journal of Medicine, 2020; Frontiers in Immunology, 2023].

Schematic representation of the clinical manifestation of thyroid eye disease (TED). The most common clinical symptoms are depicted in this illustration [Kulbay et al 2024, Int Mol Sci].

2.1.2 Pathophysiology & Target Rationale (TED->IGF‑1R)

The backbone of TED pathogenesis involves the uncontrolled activation of orbital fibroblasts by thyroid-stimulating autoantibodies, IGF-1R autoantibodies, and through the proinflammatory microenvironment created by T- and B-cells. Activated orbital fibroblasts lead to adipogenesis, which is involved in proptosis and orbital fat expansion, as well as glycosaminoglycan, hyaluronan, and proteoglycan production, markers involved in scar formation [Kulbay et al 2024, Int Mol Sci].

Schematic representation the TDE pathophysiology [Kulbay et al 2024, Int Mol Sci].

Orbital fibroblasts/adipocytes co‑express thyroid‑stimulating hormone receptor (TSHR) and insulin‑like growth factor‑1 receptor (IGF‑1R). TSHR/IGF‑1R crosstalk amplifies downstream signaling (e.g., PI3K/AKT and cAMP/PKA), driving adipogenesis and hyaluronan production and providing a mechanistic basis for IGF‑1R blockade in TED [Frontiers in Immunology, 2023; Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 2022]. This mechanism underpins Viridian Therapeutics’ TED portfolio (Veligrotug with imminent BLA; VRDN-003 in Phase 3).

Schematic representation of the orbital fibroblast signaling cascades in Graves’ orbitopathy and how they affect pathogenic mechanisms (adipogenesis and hyaluronan production) [Draman et al 2021, Front Endocrinol].

2.1.3 Class Validation (TED->Anti‑IGF‑1R)

Teprotumumab (Amgen; brand name Tepezza), a fully human immunoglobulin G (IgG) monoclonal antibody (mAb) given intravenously (IV), improved proptosis, Clinical Activity Score (CAS), diplopia, and quality of life (QoL) versus placebo in randomized, controlled trials (OPTIC Phase 3), establishing IGF‑1R inhibition as a disease‑modifying approach and a clear regulatory precedent. At Week 24, proptosis response ≥2 mm was 83% vs 10%, mean proptosis change −2.82 mm vs −0.54 mm, overall response (≥2-point Clinical Activity Score (CAS) drop + ≥2 mm proptosis reduction) 78% vs 7%, CAS 0–1 59% vs 21%, diplopia response (among those with baseline diplopia) 68% vs 29%, and quality of life (QOL) improvement (GO-QOL) +13.8 vs +4.4 points, all strongly favoring teprotumumab [New England Journal of Medicine, 2020].

2.2 FcRn Mechanism & Portfolio Relevance

Neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn)–targeted therapies address immunoglobulin G (IgG)–mediated autoimmune diseases in which pathogenic IgG autoantibodies drive organ-specific symptoms; representative examples include generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), Myositis, Lupus Nephritis, and Sjogren's Syndrome [Corporate Presentation, October 2025].

2.2.1 Pathophysiology & Target Rationale (FcRn-Inhibition) 

The neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) binds IgG and albumin in acidified endosomes and rescues these ligands from lysosomal degradation, recycling them to the cell surface and thereby prolonging their circulating half-lives. Pharmacologic FcRn inhibition blocks this salvage pathway and lowers circulating IgG, reducing exposure to pathogenic autoantibodies while generally sparing other immunoglobulin classes [Immunological Reviews, 2015; Journal of Biological Chemistry, 2006]. This mechanism is modality-agnostic and underpins Viridian Therapeutics’ FcRn portfolio (VRDN-006 in Phase 1; VRDN-008 in preclinical development).

Schematic representation of the FcRn-mediated IgG recycle mechanism. 1) FcRn inhibitor and IgGs, including pathogenic autoantibodies, enter the cell; 2) FcRn inhibitor blocks IgGs from binding to FcRn; 3) Unbound IgGs, including pathogenic autoantibodies, are degraded byt the lysosome, reducing serum levels; 4) The bound FcRn inhibitor and IgG are recycled and released. [Corporate Presentation, October 2025]

2.2.2 Class Validation (FcRn-Inhibition) 

Class validation comes from randomized, controlled trials in IgG‑mediated neuromuscular disease: in acetylcholine receptor antibody–positive generalized myasthenia gravis (Anti-AChR-IgG positive gMG), efgartigimod (Argenx SE; brand name Vyvgart) achieved Myasthenia Gravis Activites of Daily Living (MG‑ADL) responder rates of 68% vs 30% in Cycle 1 (odds ratio 4.95; p<0.0001), and rozanolixizumab (UCB; brand name Rystiggo) produced clinically meaningful improvements on MG‑ADL and investigator‑assessed outcomes versus placebo. These results demonstrated that FcRn blockade, and the resulting reduction of IgGs (including the pathogenic Anti-AChR-IgG), translates into clinically meaningful improvement.

Schematic representation of myasthenia gravis (gMG). The autoantibodies against AChR (Anti-AChR-IgG) block, alter, or destroy AchR, preventing ACh binding and muscle contraction. As efgartigimod lower the IgG circulating (including the disease-associated autoantibodies), the Auto-AchR-IgG would bind less to the AchR rescuing the ACh-driven muscle contraction [focusonneurology.com].

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3 Clinical evidence & Development Plan for Veridian Therapeutics

3.1 TED

3.1.1 THRIVE (Phase 3, active TDE)

THRIVE trail employed veligrotug (IV), an anti-IGF-1R-mAb given intravenously. After five infusions every three weeks, Week 15 endpoints were: proptosis responder rate (≥2 mm reduction without fellow-eye worsening) 70% veligrotug vs 5% placebo (p<0.0001); mean proptosis change −2.9 mm vs −0.48 mm (p<0.0001); diplopia complete resolution 54% vs 12% (p<0.0001); diplopia response 63% vs 20% (p<0.0001); Clinical Activity Score 0–1 of 64% vs 18% (p<0.0001); overall responder rate 67% vs 5% (p<0.0001); onset of 53% achieved a proptosis response after the first infusion (~3 weeks); no treatment-related serious adverse events, 4% discontinuations, and a 5.5% placebo-adjusted hearing-impairment adverse event rate (16.0% vs 10.5%). [Company press release, September 10, 2024]. Among Week-15 proptosis responders who continued follow-up to Week 52 (n=30), 70% (21/30) maintained response; no new safety signals emerged and most adverse events present at Week 15 had resolved by Week 52 [Company press release, May 20, 2025]. Veligrotug (IV) BLA timing is guided as “imminent,” European Union (EU) Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) is targeted for 1H-2026, and potential United States launch in 2H-2026.

THRIVE results. Primary endopoint of Proptosis responder rate met at 15 weeks: 70% for patients receiving veligrotug compared with 5% on PBO [Corporate Presentation, October 2025].

THRIVE results. Majority of patients receiving veligrotug had complete resolution of diplopia and minimal disease activity (CAS) at week 15 [Corporate Presentation, October 2025].

3.1.2 THRIVE-2 (Phase 3, chronic TDE)

THRIVE-2 trail also employed veligrotug (IV), an anti-IGF-1R-mAb given intravenously. After five infusions every three weeks, Week 15 endpoints were: proptosis responder rate of 56% vs 8% placebo (p<0.0001); diplopia responder rate of 56% vs 25% placebo (p=0.0006); diplopia complete resolution of 32% vs 14% placebo (p=0.0152); overall response rate of 56% vs 7% placebo (p<0.0001); Clinical Activity Score 0–1 of 54% vs 24% (p=0.006); treatment was generally well tolerated, with 94% completing treatment and a 9.6% placebo-adjusted hearing-impairment adverse event rate [Company press release, December 16, 2024]. Veligrotug (IV) BLA timing is guided as “imminent,” European Union (EU) Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) is targeted for 1H-2026, and potential United States launch in 2H-2026.

THRIVE-2 results. Statistically significant proptosis responder rate at all time

points, including at 3 weeks, after just one infusion of veligrotug (IV)

[Corporate Presentation, October 2025].

THRIVE-2 results. THRIVE-2 is the first phase 3 study in patients with chronic TED to

demonstrate statistically significant diplopia response & resolution

[Corporate Presentation, October 2025].

3.1.4 REVEAL-1 and REVEAL-2 (Phase 3, active TED) and REVEAL-2 (chronic TED)

REVEAL trails employed VRDN-003, an anti-IGF-1R mAb given subcutaneously containing the same binding domain of Veligrotub with an engineered Fc fragment extending the half-life. REVEAL-1 (active Thyroid Eye Disease) and REVEAL-2 (chronic Thyroid Eye Disease) completed enrollment (132 and 204 patients, respectively) and evaluate subcutaneous dosing every 4 or 8 weeks with 24-week primary endpoints and 52-week total follow-up. Both REVEAL clinical programs share key features and operations with THRIVE trials. Topline readouts for VRDN-003 are guided for 1H-2026, a BLA is targeted for YE-2026, and the intended launch, if approved, uses a low-volume autoinjector for at-home self-administration [Company press release, September 15, 2025].

Illustration of THRIVE and REVEAL trials [Corporate Presentation, October 2025].

3.2 FcRn–Targeted Diseases

3.2.1 VRDN-006 (Phase 1)

The trail employed VRDN-006 (SC), an Fc fragment acting as FcRn inhibitor. First-in-human Phase 1 healthy-volunteer study ongoing as a self-administered subcutaneous agent; company disclosures emphasize class-consistent objectives (dose-dependent total immunoglobulin G reduction while sparing albumin), with initial human quantitative IgG data not yet disclosed publicly as of October 2025 [Corporate presentation, October 2025].

3.2.1 VRDN-008 (Preclinical/IND-enabling)

The trail employed VRDN-008, an half-life-extended  FcRn inhibitor. VRDN-008 incorporates an albumin-binding domain to extend half-life and sustain IgG lowering; non-human-primate head-to-head data versus efgartigimod showed longer half-life and more durable IgG reduction after a single dose. Investigational New Drug (IND) timing is guided around YE-2025 [Corporate presentation, October 2025].

Viridian's portfolio of FcRn inhibitors aims to reduce circulating levels of pathogenic autoantibodies by blocking FcRn [Corporate Presentation, October 2025].

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4 Market Landscape & Total Addressable Market (TAM)

4.1.1 TED

A concise way to size TED TAM is to link epidemiology to course economics and then convert incident candidates into annual courses at steady state. For the United States, recent claims work places incident moderate–severe TED at ~4.4–9.0 per 100,000 person-years; using a midpoint of ~6.7/100k on a 335M population implies ~22.4k incident candidates per year. Applying ~35% biologic treatment in steady state plus a 12.5% retreatment uplift yields ~8.9k courses/year (22.4k×0.35×1.125). The labeled regimen (Amgen’s TEPEZZA) is eight IV infusions totaling ~11,250 mg for a 75-kg patient; at a WAC of US$17,511.13 per 500-mg vial (Mar 25, 2025), the list course cost is ~US$403k, which would sum to ~US$3.6B on a gross (WAC) basis. After typical gross-to-net (rebates/discounts, site-of-care), realized net/course settles nearer US$225–250k, centering the served U.S. TAM at ~US$2.0–2.2B, consistent with Viridian’s framing. [Clin Endocrinol (Oxf) 2025]. [TEPEZZA label/pricing, Mar 25, 2025].

Using the same scaffold for Europe (EU27 + UK), a ~515M population with the 6.7/100k midpoint implies ~34.5k incident candidates/year; with the 0.39375 courses factor (35% treated × 1.125 retreatment), that maps to ~13.6k courses/year. Given HTA-constrained net pricing and broader public-payer mix, we assume ~US$160k net/course, which yields a served EU TAM of ~US$2.17B (13.6k×US$160k). (EU inputs derived by analogy to U.S. framework and payer dynamics).

For Japan, a ~124M population at 6.7/100k yields ~8.3k incident candidates/year and ~3.3k courses/year on the same 0.39375 factor. With net/course typically between EU and U.S., we assume ~US$190k net/course, placing Japan’s market-level served TAM at ~US$0.62B (3.3k×US$190k). However, Viridian has out-licensed Japan; therefore Japan is not modeled as direct product TAM. Instead, the valuation converts Japan’s partner sales into tiered royalties (low-20s to mid-30s %) and probability-weighted milestones, which are capitalized separately from U.S./EU owned sales (Japan inputs derived by analogy to U.S. framework; economics reflect disclosed partnership terms).

Taken together, these steady-state net estimates support a global patient-level served TAM of ~US$4.9B (U.S. ~US$2.0–2.2B, EU ~US$2.17B, Japan ~US$0.62B). In the financial model, owned geographies (U.S., EU) flow into product sales (IV vs. SC) and are risk-adjusted for program stage, while Japan contributes via a royalty/milestone rNPV, avoiding overstatement of Viridian’s direct TAM [Clin Endocrinol (Oxf) 2025]. [TEPEZZA label/pricing, Mar 25, 2025].

4.2 FcRn–Targeted Therapies

A concise way to size FcRn opportunity is to link prevalent disease to annual therapy economics and convert the eligible pool into treated patient-years at steady state. For the United States, a mid-30s per 100,000 prevalence anchor for generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) on a 335M population yields ~124k prevalent gMG. Assuming 35% of patients are candidates for advanced biologic therapy in steady state and ~25% class share for FcRn (competing with IVIG/PLEX/other biologics), the model implies ~10.8k FcRn patient-years for gMG. Using a net price assumption of ~$225k per treated year (aligned to at-home SC class economics), the U.S. gMG served TAM approximates ~$2.44B. For CIDP, a mid-range prevalence near ~6/100k maps to ~20.1k prevalent; applying 30% biologic eligibility and ~20%FcRn share yields ~1.2k patient-years, or ~$0.27B at the same net/year. Together, a steady-state U.S. FcRn class TAM of ~$2.7B across gMG+CIDP is reasonable on current utilization and pricing.

Using the identical scaffold for Europe (EU27+UK) with a ~515M population, a conservative gMG prevalence ~25/100k implies ~128.8k prevalent; with 35% biologic eligibility and ~20% FcRn share, that converts to ~9.0k patient-years. Applying an EU net/year assumption of ~$140k (reflecting HTA discounts and public-payer mix) gives a gMG TAM of ~$1.26B. For CIDP, a prevalence anchor of ~5/100k implies ~25.8k prevalent; at 30% eligible and ~15% FcRn share, that is ~1.16k patient-years and ~$0.16B at the same net/year. On this basis, the EU FcRn TAMcenters near ~$1.42B.

Taken together, these steady-state net estimates support a class TAM of ~$4.1–4.2B across gMG+CIDP in the U.S. and EU (U.S. ~$2.7B, EU ~$1.42B). Japan is excluded from this perimeter. As Viridian’s FcRn assets (VRDN-006, VRDN-008) advance and indication strategy broadens (e.g., ITP, pemphigus, nephropathies), this TAM can be expanded by adding indication-specific prevalence, eligibility, class share, and region-appropriate net/year using the same template.

5 Valuation Framework

5.1 TED Franchise — Base Case

The base perimeter uses the TED TAM math above and carries U.S. and EU as owned geographies with product cash flows, while Japan is out-licensed and enters the model as royalty economics (not direct product TAM). Within each owned region, the model allocates peak exposure 50% to veligrotug (IV) and 50% to VRDN-003 (SC) to avoid IV↔SC double count, applies unrisked peak shares of 11% (IV) / 15% (SC), and then weights by stage LoS of 85% (IV) and 70% (SC). On that basis, risk-adjusted peak sales are $208.4M in the U.S. (IV $98.2M, SC $110.3M) and $215.4M in the EU (IV $101.4M, SC $113.9M). Japan is sized for partner sales only (TAM ~$0.62B), implying partner risk-adjusted peak of ~$61.6M that will be converted to tiered royalties in the 20s–mid-30s rather than counted as VRDN product revenue.

Cash-flow mechanics follow an explicit rNPV: 50% NOPAT margin, 10% WACC, a core window 2026–2035, and a tail decay using −10% YoY factor (2036–2040) from 2035 levels. Ramps embed regulatory timing—U.S. IV launch 2H26; U.S. SC 2028; EU IV 2027; EU SC 2029—with the franchise peaking ~2030–2032 as SC convenience gradually cannibalizes IV. Under these inputs, the U.S. schedule (audited year-by-year) yields rNPV_US ≈ $400.3M, which corresponds to ~1.92× U.S. risk-adjusted peak. The EU is modeled with a conservative ~1.72× multiple to its risk-adjusted peak—reflecting the one-year launch lag and slightly shorter plateau—giving rNPV_EU ≈ $371.8M. Japan is translated to VRDN economics via royalties: partner risk-adjusted peak ~$61.6M × 27.5% royalty implies peak royalty ~$16.9M, which, capitalized at a ~2.6× royalty multiple (high-margin, later start), gives rNPV_JP ≈ $44.1M.

The TED franchise EV on rNPV is therefore ~$816.2M (U.S. $400.3M + EU $371.8M + JP royalty $44.1M).

PV Value by year for the TED franchise.

Inputs	Metrics	Comments
U.S. TAM (net, US$)	$2,100,000,000	Epidemiology × net/course; steady-state
EU TAM (net, US$)	$2,170,000,000	HTA-constrained net/course; steady-state
Japan TAM (net, US$)	$620,000,000	Market TAM for partner; used for royalties only
Peak split IV	50%	Share of peak at maturity (modality)
Peak split SC	50%	Complement to IV share
Peak share IV (unrisked)	11%	Share of served TAM at peak (IV)
Peak share SC (unrisked)	15%	Share of served TAM at peak (SC)
LoS IV	85%	Success probability (IV)
LoS SC	70%	Success probability (SC)
NOPAT margin (owned)	50%	After-tax operating margin for owned sales
NOPAT margin (royalty)	90%	Royalty revenue margin
WACC (discount rate)	10%	PV to end-2025
Tail decay (2036–2040)	10%	Decline off 2035
Royalty rate (Japan)	27.5%	Midpoint of disclosed tier
Total TED rNPV	$816,158,872	US + EU27+UK + JP (2026-2040)

Summary table for the TED franchise valuation.

5.2 FcRn–Targeted Franchise — Base Case

The FcRn perimeter uses the class TAM math above for gMG and CIDP and carries the United States and Europe (EU27+UK) as owned geographies; Japan is excluded from this module (modeled via royalties elsewhere). Within each region, class exposure is allocated to Viridian’s two assets—VRDN-006 and VRDN-008—via unrisked peak class shares of 7% and 5%, respectively, and then weighted by stage LoS of 30% (VRDN-006; Phase 1) and 20% (VRDN-008; Preclinical/IND-enabling). On that basis, risk-adjusted peak sales are $83.7M in the U.S. (VRDN-006 $56.7M; VRDN-008 $27.0M) and $44.0M in the EU (VRDN-006 $29.8M; VRDN-008 $14.2M), for owned rAdj peak of ~$127.7M across the two regions.

Cash-flow mechanics follow an explicit rNPV: 50% NOPAT margin, 10% WACC, a core window 2029–2038, and a tail implemented via gradually declining ramp levels in 2039–2040. Ramps embed program timing and class dynamics—U.S. VRDN-006 in 2029 and U.S. VRDN-008 in 2031; EU VRDN-006 in 2030 and EU VRDN-008 in 2032—with peaks achieved ~2033–2035 before gentle erosion as competing options (IVIG/PLEX/other biologics) and payer management cap duration. Under these inputs, the U.S. schedule yields rNPV_US ≈ $127.9M, which corresponds to ~1.53× the U.S. risk-adjusted peak ($83.7M). The EU schedule yields rNPV_EU ≈ $57.6M, or ~1.31× its risk-adjusted peak ($44.0M), reflecting the one-year launch lag and a slightly shorter plateau under HTA constraints.

The FcRn franchise EV on rNPV is therefore ~$185.5M (U.S. $127.9M + EU $57.6M).

PV Value by year for FcRn franchise.

Inputs	Metrics	Comments
U.S. FcRn class TAM (net, US$)	$2,700,000,000	gMG + CIDP steady-state; aligned to class economics
EU FcRn class TAM (net, US$)	$1,420,000,000	EU; HTA net/year embedded
VRDN‑006 share of class (unrisked)	7%	Peak share vs FcRn class (base 7%)
VRDN‑008 share of class (unrisked)	5%	Peak share vs FcRn class (base 5%)
LoS VRDN‑006	30%	Stage probability (Phase 1 HV)
LoS VRDN‑008	20%	Stage probability (pre‑PoC / IND‑enabling)
NOPAT margin (owned)	50%	After‑tax operating margin for owned biologics
WACC (discount rate)	10%	PV to end‑2025
Tail decay (post‑2038)	10%	Applied via ramp levels
Total FcRn rNPV	$185,505,766	US + EU (2026-2040)

Summary table for the FcRn franchise valuation.

5.3 Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) — Base Case

The base perimeter aggregates the program rNPVs into a single SOTP and then bridges to equity. Program value is carried as cash-flow rNPV (US$M): TED $816.2M and FcRn $185.5M, for a combined EV of $1,001.7M. Consistent with the module economics above, net cash is added once at the corporate level; using $542.6M (end-period) lifts the bridge to $1,544.26M of equity value. In this base presentation the corporate overhead PV line is held at $0M, so equity is simply EV + net cash. Dividing by ~100.320M fully diluted shares produces an implied value of ~$15.39 per share.

This construct is intentionally conservative on timing (explicit cash-flow ramps and discounting) yet transparent on capital structure: program rNPVs capture the U.S./EU owned cash flows and (for TED) Japan as royalties; corporate net cash is layered once to avoid double counting; and the share base is set to fully diluted for headline comparability.

Metrics	US$M
Total TED rNPV (EV, US$M)	$816.2
Total FcRn rNPV (EV, US$M)	$185.5
Combined rNPV (EV, US$M)	$1,001.7
Net cash (US$M)	$542.6
Equity Value (US$M)	$1,544.26
FD Shares Outstanding (M) (as converted)	100.320
Implied $/sh	$15.39/sh

Summary table for the company valuation.

To triangulate cash-flow discipline with prevailing specialty-biologic conventions, the base SOTP also overlays a market cross-check—5× on owned TED risk-adjusted peak (U.S.+EU) plus Japan royalty rNPV and 3× on owned FcRn risk-adjusted peak—and blends it 70% rNPV / 30% multiple. On today’s inputs, the pure multiple cross-check implies EV ≈ $2,546M; the 70/30 blend yields EV ≈ $1,465M, which, after adding $542.6M net cash, produces equity ≈ $2,007.6M or ~$20.01/sh on 100.320M FD shares. This weighting preserves time-value and ramp timing (via rNPV) while acknowledging a modest tail premium and Street triangulation (via multiples). The blend will migrate toward 100% rNPV as regulatory and commercial risk is retired.

Metrics	Implied $/sh
Blended 70% rNPV / 30% Multiple	$20.01

Summary table for the blended company valuation (base case).

5.4 Company-Level Conservative Case (SOTP)

The conservative case layers downside to demand, access, probability, and timing into the program rNPVs and applies a corporate cost. Total EVs sum to $528.1M (TED $452.1M; FcRn $76.0M). Applying a $300M corporate overhead PV and adding $542.6M of net cash yields Equity = 528.1 − 300 + 542.6 = $770.7M. On ~100.320M FD shares, the implied value is ~$7.68 per share. This defensible downside reflects slower ramps (peak slips ~1 year), lower served TAM ($1.9B US TED TAM; $1.95B EU TED TAM; $2.4B US FcRn TAM; $1.28B EU FcRn TAM) and peak shares (9% IV; 12% SC; 5% VRDN-006; 3% VRDN-008), softer LoS (75% IV; 60% SC; 25% VRDN-006; 15% VRDN-008), and an 11% WACC; the explicit overhead line prevents double counting of HQ G&A outside program NOPAT.

To maintain symmetry with the Base construct, the conservative SOTP also overlays a market cross-check—3× on owned TED risk-adjusted peak (U.S.+EU) plus Japan royalty rNPV and 2× on owned FcRn risk-adjusted peak. Using today’s conservative inputs, the 70/30 blend (rNPV/multiple) yields program EV ≈ $657.3M. After applying the corporate overhead PV of $300M and adding $542.6M of net cash, the bridge lands at equity ≈ $899.9M, or ~$8.97/sh on 100.320M fully diluted shares. This presentation keeps the downside case anchored in explicit cash-flow timing and higher discounting, yet acknowledges prevailing market conventions via a modest multiple weight

Metrics	Implied $/sh
Blended 70% rNPV / 30% Multiple	$8.97

Summary table for the blended company valuation (conservative case).

5.5 Company-Level Aggressive Case (SOTP)

The aggressive case assumes faster adoption (peak pulled in ~1 year), larger served TAM $2.3B US TED TAM; $2.39B EU TED TAM; $3B US FcRn TAM; $1.56B EU FcRn TAM, higher peak shares (13% IV; 18% SC; 9% VRDN-006; 7% VRDN-008), mildly improved LoS (90% IV; 75% SC; 35% VRDN-006; 25% VRDN-008), and a 9% WACC, with a lighter $200M overhead PV. Program EVs sum to $1,898.6M (TED $1,433.0M; FcRn $465.6M). After SOTP adjustments, Equity = 1,898.6 − 200 + 542.6 = $2,241.2M, which on ~100.320M FD shares equates to ~$22.34 per share. The uplift versus base is driven primarily by earlier, higher plateaus in both franchises and modestly lower discounting.

Keeping methodological symmetry with the other cases, the aggressive SOTP layers a market cross-check—5× on ownedTED risk-adjusted peak (U.S.+EU) plus Japan royalty rNPV, and 3× on owned FcRn risk-adjusted peak—into a 70% rNPV / 30% multiple blend. On the aggressive inputs, the pure multiple cross-check sits above the cash-flow EV, so the blended program EV is ~$2,439M. Applying $200M corporate overhead PV and +$542.6M net cash yields equity ≈ $2,781.6M, or ~$26.73/sh on 100.320M fully diluted shares.

Case	Implied $/sh	Blended (70%-30%) Implied $/sh
Conservative	$7.68	$8.97
Base	$15.39	$20.01
Aggressive	$22.34	$26.73

One-look SOTP valuation summary.

5.6 Disaster Case

The disaster case assumes a structural failure of the portfolio rather than cyclical softness: TED does not convert to approvable/competitive labels in the U.S. or EU (IV and SC both fail to commercialize), and the FcRn programs (VRDN-006/-008) do not achieve clinical or regulatory proof within the horizon. Japan contributes no royalties(partner also fails to reach launch). Under this perimeter, program cash flows are zeroed (no owned sales, no partner revenue), so program EV = $0M. To translate to equity, the model then treats the company as a hold-co with cash and unavoidable central costs:

• Corporate overhead PV: $200M (conservative haircut for multi-year HQ G&A/platform while the company attempts to pivot or winds down; after-tax, discounted at the corporate WACC).

• Net cash: $542.6M (added once).

On that basis, Equity = 0 − 350 + 542.6 = $192.6M, and with ~100.320M fully diluted shares, the implied value is ~$1.92 per share. This represents a balance-sheet floor under a true franchise failure scenario; any salvage value (e.g., asset sales, tax attributes, or partial Japan royalties) would lift the floor modestly, while a faster wind-down (lower overhead PV) would raise it more materially.

Case	Implied $/sh
Disaster Case	$1.92
Conservative	$8.97 *
Base	$20.01 *
Aggressive	$26.73 *

Summary table of valuation cases. * blended 70% rNPV / 30% multiple

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6 Monte Carlo Analysis

6.1 Framework and Findings

To translate parameter uncertainty into an equity-value distribution, a three-scenario Monte Carlo was run with 100,000 simulations per case (Conservative, Base, Aggressive). Each simulation samples the economic levers that move valuation using PERT priors anchored to the scenario bands (TAMs, peak shares, LoS, margins, WACC, and the TED Japan royalty), and applies a discrete ramp consistent with each case’s launch cadence. Cash flows are discounted to end-2025. TED is modeled as U.S./EU owned plus Japan royalties, FcRn as U.S./EU owned. At the SOTP level we add net cash once and apply scenario overhead PV. Outputs reflect a 70% rNPV / 30% multiples blend valuation.

Monte Carlo Simulation results.

Conservative centers tightly around ~$9.22/sh with modest right skew and thin tails, consistent with slower ramps, lower TAM/share, and an 11% WACC: median $9.218, p05–p95 $8.626–$9.873, IQR $0.520, Bowley skew 0.024, moment skew 0.193, excess kurtosis −0.055. Base shifts the curve upward and broadens it modestly as uncertainty widens around a 10% WACC: median $19.871, p05–p95 $18.527–$21.279, IQR $1.150, Bowley 0.007, moment skew 0.097, excess −0.101. Aggressive pushes higher with faster ramps, larger TAM/share, and 9% WACC: median $27.562, p05–p95 $25.691–$29.523, IQR $1.584, Bowley 0.016, moment skew 0.076, excess −0.091. Pooling all three as an equal-weight mixture naturally creates a wide, multi-modal envelope: median $19.871, IQR $17.297, Bowley −0.201, excess −1.466—the platykurtic shape is the expected imprint of mixing distinct regimes, not evidence of fat tails.

The October 31 close of $23.63 sits above the Base p95 ($21.28) yet below the Aggressive lower quartile ($26.78). In other words, the market is discounting outcomes between Base and Aggressive, implying some combination of richer TAM/share, lower effective WACC/overhead, faster adoption, and/or incremental optionality versus the Base priors—but not fully at the Aggressive central tendency. The distributions remain well-behaved (light skew, shallow tails). Downside under Conservative assumptions compresses toward ~$9/sh rather than a left-tail collapse, while upside consistent with Aggressive execution clusters in the mid-to-high-$20s. As new data shift WACC, ramp timing, class share, or royalty terms, the same framework can be re-run with updated priors to quantify how the percentile alignment between fundamentals and price evolves.

scenario	mean	median	p05	p25	p75	p95	IQR	bowley_skew	tail_ratio	skew_moment	excess_kurtosis
Conservative	9.230	9.218	8.626	8.964	9.485	9.873	0.520	0.024	1.106	0.193	-0.055
Base	19.883	19.871	18.527	19.300	20.450	21.279	1.150	0.007	1.047	0.097	-0.101
Aggressive	27.581	27.562	25.691	26.782	28.366	29.523	1.584	0.016	1.048	0.076	-0.091
All (equal mix)	18.898	19.871	8.832	9.485	26.782	28.802	17.297	-0.201	0.809	-0.165	-1.466

Summary table for Monte Carlo results.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7 Financial Position & Runway

7.1 Cash and investments

Viridian reported US$563.4 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short‑term investments as of June 30, 2025, and guided that existing resources fund planned operations into the second half of 2027 [Source: Form 10‑Q for quarter ended June 30, 2025].

7.1 Debt facilities

The company’s Loan and Security Agreement with Hercules Capital, Inc. (Hercules, a specialty finance/venture‑lending firm) remains its primary debt facility as disclosed in the quarterly filing [Source: Form 10‑Q for quarter ended June 30, 2025].

7.2 Royalty financing

On October 20, 2025, Viridian announced up to US$300 million in royalty financing from DRI Healthcare, including US$55 million upfront and up to US$115 million in near‑term milestones tied to positive REVEAL topline data and U.S. veligrotug approval [Source: Company press release Oct 20, 2025].

7.3 Strategic partnerships

On July 30, 2025, Viridian licensed veligrotug and VRDN‑003 to Kissei Pharmaceutical for Japan for US$70 million upfront, up to US$315 million in milestones, and tiered royalties [Source: Company press release Jul 30, 2025].

7.4 Runway framing

The 10‑Q runway disclosure precedes the October financing and Japan partnership economics, which together enhance liquidity ahead of regulatory filings and potential launch activities in 2026 [Source: Form 10‑Q Jun 30, 2025; Company press releases Oct 20, 2025 and Jul 30, 2025].

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8 Risks & Mitigants

8.1 Introduction to Risks & Mitigants

VRDN’s valuation translates execution into discounted cash flows; risk clusters into clinical/regulatory, market/access, and operational/capital—with explicit mitigants embedded in the model.

8.2 Clinical & Regulatory

The TED franchise must deliver approvable, durable efficacy with acceptable safety on the assumed timelines (IV first, then SC). Misses on effect size, durability, or tolerability would push launches right and compress peak share. Mitigants: (i) mechanism validated in TED; (ii) modality diversification (IV near-term, SC convenience) and LoS weighting (higher for IV, lower for SC) already reduce exposure; (iii) ramps, WACC (9–11%), and shares are stressed in Monte Carlo, bounding downside within the conservative/disaster cases.

8.3 Market & Access

U.S./EU TAMs hinge on realized net price (course for TED; year for FcRn), payer tools, and competition (TED vs TEPEZZA economics; FcRn vs IVIG/PLEX/other biologics). Slower uptake, higher gross-to-net, or shorter duration lowers rNPV. Mitigants: pricing is haircut to realistic corridors; EU is modeled with HTA-constrained nets and a one-year lag; Japan is royalties (not product TAM), shifting execution risk to the partner; the IV↔SC 50/50 split avoids double counting; SC’s higher convenience share is offset by a lower LoS.

8.4 Operational & Capital

CMC, supply, and launch execution can mimic clinical delay; cost surprises compress NOPAT margins. Mitigants: only owned geographies (U.S./EU) are capitalized as product sales; Japan is royalty (90% NOPAT conversion). Margins are explicitly ranged (owned 45–55%), and FX/policy risk is parameterized (EU USD-pinned in base). At SOTP, net cash is added once, shares are fully diluted, and corporate overhead is taken as a present value line (varied by case), preventing silent overstatement of equity.

8.5 Competition, IP & Updates

Faster FcRn entrants or tighter payer management could cap duration; label expansions, better-than-assumed EU pricing, or superior SC convenience could extend the plateau. Rather than fix a single narrative, the Monte Carlo provides the operating envelope; as data arrive (late-stage readouts, regulatory minutes, CMC, HTA outcomes), priors are refreshed and value migrates from uncertainty to modeled EV—crediting mitigants (e.g., SC performance, royalty step-ups, overhead discipline) transparently.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9 Catalysts & Trading Set-up

VRDN’s equity path is driven by a handful of events that map directly to the model’s levers—LoS, ramp timing, peak share, and the SOTP bridge. With the market pricing outcomes between Base and Aggressive, the next data points will decide where the distribution recenters.

9.1 Near term (6–12 months)

• TED IV filing/acceptance (2025): BLA submission and timely acceptance de-risk veligrotug (IV) LoS and firm the 2H-2026 window; CMC/label asks push right and shave PV.

• EU cadence: MAA/validation sets the 2027–2029 sequence; early HTA read-ins calibrate EU net/course and plateau length.

• Japan (partner): clarity on readiness/first interactions tightens the royalty rNPV band.

9.2 Mid-cycle (12–24 months)

• TED IV U.S. action date (2H26): clean, broad label = Base ramp locked; restrictive monitoring/site-of-care = Conservative drift.• VRDN-003 (SC) Ph3 topline (1H-2026) / BLA (YE26): non-inferior efficacy and favorable usability support an earlier IV→SC hand-off and higher plateau (Aggressive tilt); mixed data cap SC share and lengthen IV tail (Base tilt).

• EU HTA outcomes: confirm or reset EU net/course and lag.

9.3 FcRn (translational/PoC)

Initial human PK/PD (IgG lowering), study starts, and early controlled efficacy snapshots set LoS and class share priors. Clean, durable biology moves toward Aggressive; equivocal signals keep priors in the Conservative band.

9.4 Trading set-up

Into the IV filing/acceptance window, “de-risk the probability, rent the ramp”: hold Base-sized core; express upside with defined-risk optionality around acceptance and, later, PDUFA. Ahead of SC Ph3, variance widens—use convex structures (financed by trims) to keep P&L inside the Base envelope if results are merely adequate. With price above the Base band but below Aggressive center, hedges into binaries (put spreads or sector sleeve) are warranted for Base-anchored position sizes. At SOTP, add net cash once and deduct overhead centrally; reflect any capital-raising signals in the FD share input.

9.5 Process

When catalysts move inputs—LoS, ramp year, peak share, EU net/course, royalty rate, WACC—rerun the one-sheet and Monte Carlo with refreshed priors. Positive IV/SC outcomes that pull peak left ~1 year and add +100–200 bps to peak share keep the curve near Aggressive; CMC/HTA slippage or SC friction recenters toward Base. The framework makes that translation immediate and keeps trading decisions tied to the same cash-flow math that underwrites the target.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10 Investment View & Rating

Rating: Hold or Hype Buy (tactical into catalysts)

12-mo Price Target: $20.0/sh (Base blended SOTP)

Scenario Range (blended medians): $9.22–$27.56/sh (Conservative ↔ Aggressive)

Floor ~ $1.9/sh (Disaster)

Risk Rating: High (clinical, regulatory, access, execution concentrated in 24–36 months)

10.1 Thesis

We blend 70% explicit rNPV with 30% market multiples (TED 5× on owned risk-adj peak; FcRn 3×; Japan as royalty rNPV). Program EV ~$1,465M plus $542.6M net cash ⇒ equity ~$2,007.6M, or ~$20.01/sh on ~100.32M FD shares (rounded $20.0/sh target). With shares at $23.63 (10/31), price sits between Base and Aggressive distributions. Hence our default stance is Hold, but we layer a “Hype Buy” tag tactically for short, well-defined windows where upside skew is favorable around de-risking catalysts (e.g., IV BLA acceptance/PDUFA, SC Ph3 topline).

10.2 Valuation cross-check

rNPV program EVs: TED ~$816M, FcRn ~$186M (combined ~$1.00B). The blended overlay lifts program EV to ~$1.47B. Blended Monte Carlo medians: Conservative $9.22/sh, Base $19.87/sh, Aggressive $27.56/sh; Disaster floor ~ $1.9/sh.

10.3 What moves us to “Hype Buy” (vs. Hold)

Clean U.S. IV label on Base timing, SC Ph3 non-inferiority with good usability (earlier IV→SC hand-off), EU HTA above assumed nets/lag, or compelling FcRn PoC—especially when event windows are tight and downside is hedgeable—justify a tactical Hype Buy (defined-risk positioning). Conversely, CMC/label friction, SC miss, EU pricing/duration below assumptions, FcRn setbacks, or dilution pushing FD shares up reinforce Hold (or smaller sizing) until priors improve.

10.4 Bottom line

Hold with a $20.0/sh 12-month target; Hype Buy selectively into high-impact, near-dated catalysts where expected skew favors upside and the path to the Aggressive band is credibly opened.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------